Executive Summary
The 2025 banking M&A landscape has the potential to surge. Success hinges on balancing technological innovation with risk management, navigating regulatory environments and creating value through targeted acquisitions.
2025 could be a big year for M&A in banking — once institutions have a clear line of sight to engage in deal-making. With expectations around a mix of regulatory changes, eyes on the Fed’s interest rate strategy and digital transformation trends, the industry is poised for a potential surge in deal activity — provided rates stabilize and the economy becomes more predictable.
“Right now, banks are in a state of anticipation,” said Graham Tasman, Grant Thornton Principal and Banking Industry Leader. “While M&A has seen its ebbs and flows, we expect activity to accelerate once there’s more certainty about interest rates and a clearer sense that inflation is under control.”
Factors impacting the M&A environment
Interest rates and market volatility
Banks’ plans to re-evaluate their growth and consolidation approaches rely heavily on the Fed’s inflation control measures and evolving government policy on debt ceiling management.
On Jan. 29, the Fed announced its plans to hold benchmark federal funds rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5% while it gathers more information through this first quarter. While an expected move, the future of rates remains in flux as other economic factors foster uncertainty.
“After decades of a pretty friendly rate environment, this is a new normal — and it’s causing banks to rethink how to proceed in this new normal,” said John Cristiano, Financial Services & Fintech M&A Leader at Grant Thornton. "While a high-interest-rate environment benefits traditional banking profitability, it's also creating a bifurcated market. Strong performers are finding opportunities for strategic acquisitions, while institutions facing margin pressure may need to consider defensive consolidation.”
This dynamic points to two distinct M&A trends emerging:
- Strategic acquisitions by well-capitalized banks seeking to expand their footprint or capabilities
- Defensive mergers among institutions looking to achieve economies of scale and strengthen their market position
Bank segment
The current environment creates distinctly different challenges and opportunities based on institutional size.
Large institutions are pursuing strategic diversification across service lines, industry verticals and geographic markets, leaving smaller and regional banks strategizing how to keep up.
“The trend of regional banks merging or being purchased will likely continue,” Cristiano said. “Regional banks are often tied to their local market, which limits options for exploring other industries or geographies.”
While their regional knowledge sets them apart from larger competitors, they’re confronting three critical challenges: rising technology infrastructure costs, increasing regulatory compliance burdens and intensifying competition for top talent.
For regional bank leaders, the key question isn’t whether to consider M&A but how to structure transactions that preserve their competitive advantages while addressing structural challenges. This often means seeking partners with complementary strengths rather than simply pursuing size for its own sake.
Regulatory challenges
The regulatory environment, particularly the minimum capital requirements for large banks, anti-money laundering requirements and risk management programs to address issues like cybersecurity and fraud, will all continue to impact the M&A environment.
Large banks submit to higher standards with regulatory compliance, such as increased regulatory scrutiny of capitalization requirements. Operationally, larger banks are more equipped to manage regulatory requirements with deeper resources to draw from in RegTech and other transformative technology investments. Compliance poses a bigger challenge for smaller institutions that lack scale, so merging with other institutions can help them build stronger, more cost-effective compliance programs while spreading costs across a larger organization.
As regulatory policy shifts continue to unfold with the new administration, banking institutions remain committed to strong regulatory compliance, recognizing that what’s good for customers is good for the bank. Banks should continue building compliance considerations into their M&A plans. “It’s better to continue maintaining focus on achieving the benefits of program compliance rather than hesitate and be caught unprepared for regulatory expectations that remain high or reset again in the future,” Tasman said.
Technology
The push toward digital transformation is reshaping banking M&A, but success requires more than just buying the latest technology. “Enhanced tech capabilities achievable through M&A are helping banks move into the cloud and embrace open banking instead of just building internally,” Tasman said. “Acquisitions that provide access to customer data, AI-powered platforms or innovative financial products will be strategic priorities for many banks.”
Large banks typically have two advantages when it comes to technology:
- Bigger technology budgets
- More resource depth to focus on innovation
But they also face a common challenge: the longstanding burden of updating legacy systems without creating undue operational risk. M&A can help address this problem by providing an opportunity to standardize operations on one common platform, either through the acquirer or acquiree.
With smaller tech budgets, regional banks need to be especially strategic about technology investments. This has led to a shift in how banks view fintech relationships.
“The bank-fintech relationship has evolved from competition to collaboration,” Cristiano said. “Banks increasingly recognize that partnering with fintechs can be smarter than trying to build everything in-house.”
When considering technology strategy, banks now have three main options:
- Full acquisition of fintech companies
- Strategic partnerships with technology providers
- Targeted purchases of specific technology platforms
Other banking insights
Strategic imperatives for success
Understand your customer
Fintechs have a remarkable ability to market and build brands that resonate — capturing the attention of young adults seeking financial providers and encouraging them to do their banking straight from their mobile device. Over a third of Gen Z said they would choose a fintech over banks for online payments.
But while it may appear that every young adult has flocked to apps like Venmo and Zelle for their cash management, they may not be as keen to replace traditional banking as it may seem.
“Growth is tied to your customer and your ability to understand that customer — whether they’re new or an existing client who has the potential to grow with your institution,” Tasman said. “Fintechs have portability and ease of use, but customers know they want security and trust when it comes to handling money movement and assured custody. They need to have that trust — and that’s something that a traditional bank can provide.”
Before starting your M&A search, focus on three key questions:
- What gaps exist in your current market coverage or product offerings?
- Where are your customers asking for additional services?
- Which capabilities would be too expensive or time-consuming to build internally?
Protect your data and manage risk
Another crucial consideration in M&A is maintaining control of customer data and insights. When partnering with fintechs — many of which may seem to better understand the customer experience— be aware of handing over ownership of your data.
“Banks have historically deferred to fintechs on customer experience, but the value of transaction data and customer insights can’t be understated,” Tasman said. “Banks must structure partnerships to retain control of these valuable assets while leveraging fintech capabilities to enhance service delivery.”
Get creative with deal terms
- Use earn-outs for fintech acquisitions.
- Build in regulatory compliance checkpoints.
- Add termination clauses for significant changes.
Additionally, not all fintechs will have the same staying power. “Today’s cutting-edge fintech could be tomorrow’s legacy system,” Cristiano said. To ensure long-term deal value, “Structure deals that let you adapt as technology evolves.”
Banks can mitigate risks through deal structures like earnouts and performance-linked contingencies. These mechanisms tie future payments to specific milestones, giving banks financial protection and flexibility when partnering with emerging technology companies.
Leverage technology and be change-ready
Successful M&A execution requires a comprehensive approach to technology integration. Rather than allowing businesses to continue operating on separate platforms — a common pitfall that creates long-term inefficiencies — banks should prioritize operational integration planning and strategy from the outset, specifically to:
- Make platform integration a day-one priority.
- Create clear timelines for system consolidation.
- Factor integration costs and roadmap planning into deal valuation.
- Consider cloud migration and other enhancement opportunities.
“When banks don’t focus on the integration of their platforms as part of the M&A strategy, and instead operate the platforms separately over time, that can be very hard to fix later,” Tasman warned.
Change readiness is also essential for M&A readiness. Without it, digital transformation — and M&A deals — are at risk of failure.
“The biggest determinant of success or failure isn’t the process that’s followed or the program that’s picked — it’s mostly correlated with the user adoption of the change,” Tasman said. “To have successful M&A requires a strong change management program. Without that, you create more operational risk.”
Prepare for regulatory scrutiny
Developing a common compliance function is essential to eliminate duplication and achieve scale. However, before entering a deal, reviewing the regulatory track record of potential merger targets is crucial to identify any legacy issues.
“Scale can definitely help with spreading compliance costs,” Tasman said. "But there’s a catch — if you don’t factor in gaps and changes to compliance requirements during the merger integration process, you can create new problems that are expensive to fix down the line. The key is maintaining strong oversight throughout the integration process.”
Before any deal, carefully review:
- Each bank’s regulatory track record.
- Past examination findings.
- Cost implications of any compliance issues.
- Integration timeline for combining compliance functions.
M&A outlooks for other key industries
Key action items for 2025 M&A planning
M&A in the banking industry is poised for significant growth. By balancing the desire for innovation with the need for control, banks will be well-suited for growth while staving off risk. Here are a few key steps to prepare for the year ahead:
- Review your strategic gaps and growth priorities.
- Evaluate potential merger targets with complementary strengths.
- Develop technology and compliance integration plans.
- Create a data strategy to protect customer data and insights.
- Structure flexible deals that can adapt to change
Contacts:
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Tim Douek
Managing Director, Transaction Advisory Services
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC
Timothy Douek is a Managing Director within Grant Thornton’s Transaction Advisory practice. He provides a range of transaction diligence services with a specific focus on the design and deployment of profitable, sustainable strategies for organizations looking to optimize their operating models through organic and inorganic growth.
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Industries
- Banking
- Energy
- Life sciences
- Media & entertainment
- Transportation & distribution
- Manufacturing, Transportation & Distribution
- Healthcare
Service Experience
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Content disclaimer
This Grant Thornton Advisors LLC content provides information and comments on current issues and developments. It is not a comprehensive analysis of the subject matter covered. It is not, and should not be construed as, accounting, legal, tax, or professional advice provided by Grant Thornton Advisors LLC. All relevant facts and circumstances, including the pertinent authoritative literature, need to be considered to arrive at conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this content.
Grant Thornton Advisors LLC and its subsidiary entities are not licensed CPA firms.
For additional information on topics covered in this content, contact a Grant Thornton Advisors LLC professional.
M&A outlooks for other key industries
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